Written by NPBFX
EUR is showing flat dynamics against USD during today’s Asian session, testing 1.2130 for a breakout again. Investors expect new drivers to emerge on the market after updating local highs on EUR last week, but the picture remains the same so far. Market participants are concerned about the pace of economic recovery in the eurozone after the coronavirus epidemic, fearing that the current quarantine restrictions could slow this process, especially compared to the pace of growth of the US economy. Some support for the instrument at the beginning of the week is provided by the macroeconomic data from the US published on Friday. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February fell from 79 to 76.2 points with the forecast of growth to 80.8 points. Today, traders focus on statistics from the eurozone on the dynamics of industrial production and the trade balance of the region for December.
GBP is once again strong against USD in Asia today, hitting record highs since April 2018. The instrument is gaining about 0.20% and is actively testing psychological resistance at 1.3900. GBP almost completely recovered after the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK at the end of the last trading week, when UK GDP in Q4 2020 grew by 1% QoQ after increasing by 16.1% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% QoQ. In annual terms, the economy contracted by 7.8% YoY, slightly improving from the previous value of 8.7% YoY. At the same time, NIESR GDP Estimate in January indicates a further slowdown in the economy by 2.5% QoQ, which is significantly worse than the data for the previous period at +1% QoQ.
NZD is showing strong gains against USD during today’s morning trading session, again approaching its local highs, updated at the beginning of last week. The instrument is taking advantage of the weakness of USD, as well as closed markets in the US due to the national holiday. The pair is additionally supported by good macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand, which appeared at the end of the last trading week. Business NZ PMI in January rose from 48.7 to 57.5 points, which turned out to be much better than the forecasts of a decline to 48.2 points. The Food Price Index in January showed an active growth of 1.3% MoM after rising only 0.1% MoM in December. Analysts had expected increase by 0.3% MoM only.
USD has shown strong gains against JPY during today’s Asian session, once again trying to consolidate above 105.00. The focus is on macroeconomic statistics from Japan, which was encouraging for Japanese investors, but still did not lead to a change in the trading direction in the short term. Annual data on Japan’s GDP reflected the country’s economic growth in Q4 2020 by 12.7% YoY after increasing by 22.7% YoY in the previous period. Experts expected a slowdown in GDP to +9.5% YoY. In quarterly terms, the economy slowed down from +5.3% QoQ to +3% QoQ, which was also better than market expectations at +2.3% QoQ. Industrial production dynamics slightly improved from –3.2% YoY to –2.6% YoY, with neutral forecasts.
Gold prices are consolidating, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. US markets are closed on Monday due to the President’s Day, further reducing trading activity. In turn, the position of USD remains attractive due to hopes for a recovery in the US economy in the near future. Some support for gold is provided by the growth of physical demand for the metal against the background of the celebration of the Chinese New Year; however, in the current environment, these factors are almost invisible in the current quotes of the instrument.
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